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Quarterly Indicators: The Economy and Small Business

Dec 2011

The Office of Advocacy of the Small Business Administration (SBA) has released its Small Business Quarterly Bulletin for the third quarter of 2011. The bulletin contains commentary and analysis on the current employment and financing trends of small businesses.

While there was some media discussion of a declining economy over the summer, the big three economic figures disagreed. From the second quarter to the third quarter, output was up, inflation was down and the unemployment rate was slightly down.

Financing for small businesses is showing modest improvements. Bankers report that small business loan demand and commercial and industrial loans outstanding (which include loans to large firms) increased in each quarter of 2011. Although improving, the financing environment still seems weaker today than the official end of the downturn in mid-2009.

While sales have been up recently, small businesses do have a long-term worry about future sales. A double whammy of a graying population and the increasing personal savings rate returning to early-1990s levels, a direction it has taken in recent years, could lead to relatively lower sales over the next ten years and beyond. (Note that with retirement savings not included but retirement spending included, the figure could seem artificially low with a large share of our population retired in the future.)

Small businesses with 20-499 employees are leading the charge in increasing private-sector employment. From the second quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2011 (the latest firm size data available), private-sector employment rose and these larger small businesses represented over 50 percent of the growth.

Small businesses with fewer than 20 employees represented only 12 percent of the employment growth over this time period. Historically, this smaller size class has represented about a quarter of net employment increases. The larger size class of small businesses is the only one of the three size classes to record significant net employment growth since the end of the downturn.

To view the complete bulletin including graphical charts and statistical data, go here: http://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/SBQB_2011q3.pdf.

For more information about SBA 504 loans in Florida, contact Florida First Capital by visiting www.ffcfc.com, emailing at info@ffcfc.com or calling 888.320.5504.